Will back-to-school bring shoppers back to stores?

How will the sluggish economy afffect back-to-school spending this year? The answer appears to be anyone’s guess.

The International Council of Shopping Centers predicts a modest increase of 5.4 percent in the estimated $55 billion back-to-school market. According to the National Retail Federation, the average family with school-age children will spend $606 on clothing, supplies and electronics in preparation for school this fall, a 10 percent increase over 2009.

However, some indicators paint a gloomier picture for back-to-school retailers. July sales in many stores were weaker than expected, and virtually all customers surveyed said they would rely on cost-saving measures such as shopping at discount stores, using coupons, buying on sale and delaying purchases for themselves in order to afford back-to-school items for their kids.

To help budget-conscious parents equip their children for a return to the classroom, Hy-Vee has come out with Hot Deals specials on staples such as Crayola crayons, glue and spiral notebooks. In addition, stores have partnered with PepsiCo to offer backpacks filled with school supplies for only $4.99 when customers buy any five selected Pepsi, AquaFina, Lipton or Frito-Lay products.

With back-to-school now the second-biggest shopping season of the year, analysts will be closely tracking consumer behavior over the next few weeks — the thought being that as back-to-school goes, so goes Christmas.